Seeking the Principles of Power and Danger

If you like preprints, here is one for a paper that maps the climate contrarian blogosphere and conceptualisies hyperlinking as means of signaling what is deemed valuable and legitmate: https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/64hwg_v1

Over on Musings on the Dérive I have published a review of Glen Snyder's photobook 'Clouds'. Check it out here . An quote from the review: Snyder’s photobook distills 3,000 shots taken over three years while standing at the same spot on the bank of the Tama River that divides Tokyo and Kanagawa prefectures. Pared down to a slim volume, the power of the work is not the beauty of each individual frame but the meditative motif of people passing by under the sky and the small everyday beauty of these moments. In one frame a set of people are approaching and have passed each other in the next. A cyclist gazes up into the clouds. Others look to see where they are going. A schoolboy’s white shirt is caught in the light, a woman holding an umbrella is cast in shadow, a group of runners evenly spaced as they traverse through the frame and in another scene others muddle about. People and clouds drifting along.

A new report by the Victorian Council of Social Services has come out looking at spatial injustice around exposure to the 2022 Victorian floods and its ripple effects on affected communities. Here is the report: Ripple Effects: Spatial injustice and the 2022 Victorian floods . I am happy to have contributed to the quantitative analysis that underpins the report. Here is an article I wrote with Ang Li talking about some of the findings and their implications.

This is a journal article that I published in 2024 with Ang Li and Natalia Maystorovich Chulio in Child Protection and Practice . Here is the abstract: Morocco's national lockdown was enforced between March 21st and June 10th 2020 in response to the spread of coronavirus. Restriction of civil space was not fully extended to the judiciary which had to transition to virtual sessions. To prepare for future pandemics and disasters, it is crucial to understand how well court systems across jurisdictions especially in low- and middle-income countries managed to function and protect children's access to justice under the constraints of stay-at-home orders. To investigate the effect of the national lockdown on children's access to justice in Morocco, this study employed interrupted time series analysis of publicly available court filings (N = 77,335) pertaining to child protection from January 1st to December 31st 2020 spanning the pre-lockdown, lockdown, and post-lockdown period...

Newpost on my substack blog , What is the narrative potential of a photograph? . A quote from the post: I am driven to click the shutter not out of some recognition of an idea in objective form, but from a gesture, movement, or a sense of visual rhythm. Photographs have narrative potential but do not offer narrative closure. Just resources that enable possible interpretations. The viewer is not compelled to find anything there.

New paper , with Ang Li and others, offering a framework for thinking how climate change, housing, and health intersect. The abstract: Anthropogenic climate change is causing rapid shifts in temperature and weather patterns, both in location and intensity, making living conditions increasingly hazardous. This complicates housing's frontline role in protecting human health. When housing systems fail to provide universal access to secure, affordable, and suitable housing, social and health inequalities related to climate change are amplified. The location, construction, and operation of homes influence greenhouse gas emissions and must be improved to reduce their environmental impacts. This paper, the second in a Series on housing as a social determinant of health, builds a framework for conceptualising the interactions between housing, climate, and health. It identifies the pathways through which climate change affects housing and exacerbates health risks,...

I have started a new blog, the intention is to focus on street photography and more personal reflective pieces, here it is:  Musings on the Dérive .  From the first post:  Initially, I intended this to be a street photography blog. The title playing on the idea of street photographers as modern flaneurs drifting through the city and recording a vision of how it feels to be alive and situated in a particular time and place. Yet, as I start to write, I think this is going to be a drift through myself and whatever occurs to me. Perhaps focused on candid photography of life in public spaces but not limited to it.

New paper out in Communications Earth & Envrionment  with Ang Li and Rebecca Bentley that looks at climate change and energy hardship. Here is the abstract:  Climate change is shifting the experience of energy hardship. Here we examine the effect of the intensity, frequency, and duration of temperature extremes on energy hardship, and how this risk is shaped by individual, housing and neighbourhood resiliencies across Australia, using nationally representative data (269,500 observations) on energy hardship linked to temperature records between 2005 and 2021. Findings suggest that the risk of energy hardship increases with more intense extreme heat and cold, with greater risks for older individuals, lone-person or single-parent households, and rental tenants. These vulnerabilities can be offset by quality housing and renewable energy installations. Energy hardship risks under moderate and high emissions global warming scenarios are projected to increase by 0.1%−2.6% and 0....

  Very happy to see this new scoping review published in The Lancet Plenatary Health . The recent IPCC assessment report argued that lack of ability to identify social vulnerability at a local and urban level was a critical barrier to climate adaptation planning. We conducted a scoping review of 230 studies that examined social vulnerability to the health effects of climate change in order to understand the main foci of the literature and potential gaps. We found that the main share of the research focused on high-income settings – the United States, Western Europe, Australia, Japan etc. China was the exception to that rule being the most researched country after the United States. The most vulnerable countries are lest studied. This is an issue for climate justice. We found that most research focuses on a narrow set of socio-demographic variables. Age, sex, ethnicity, education, income being amongst the most used indicators of social vulnerability. We found a relative paucity...

Here is the latest paper I have published with Ang Li  that provides an evaluation of No Jab No Play   policies that have been enacted in a series of Australian states.  Here is the title and abstract:    Title :   Vaccine mandates on childcare entry without conscientious objection exemptions: A quasi-experimental panel study   Abstract :  Objectives Examine the effect of No Jab No Play policies, which linked vaccine status to childcare service entry without allowing for personal belief exemptions, on  immunisation coverage . Study design Immunisation coverage rates from the Australian Immunisation Register were linked to regional level covariates from the Australian Bureau of Statistics between January 2016 and December 2019. Differential timings of policy rollouts across states were used to assess changes in coverage with the implementation of policies with generalised linear models. Quantile regression and subgroup analysis were also...

New paper by  Ang Li , Emma Baker, and Rebecca Bentley has been published in Social Science and Medicine , looking at how stable and secure tenancy affects the mental health and level of psychological distress of private renters compared to home owners. The results suggest that stability helps to close the mental health gap between those two groups by increasing renters well being at a faster rate overtime. This is interesting to me for two reasons: 1) it suggests that ontological security is more important than tenure type. It isn't necessarily homeownership that is protective of mental health. 2) it underscores the relationship between housing and mental health, and that the rights of tenants should be considered a public health issue.  Here is the abstract for ' Understanding the mental health effects of instability in the private rental sector: A longitudinal analysis of a national cohort ':  Using a population-based longitudinal dataset in Australia ov...

New paper by Ang Li (and co-authors Kadir Atalay & Stephen Whelan from the University of Sydney) looks at the effect of house price increases on renters and homeowners fertility intentions and fertility outcomes in Australia.  Housing affordability has been a big issue in Australia for some time and the impact of decreasing affordability has been linked to declining fertility rates. Atalay, Li and Whelan using data from the HILDA survey find that increasing house prices have different effects for homeowners and renters. Here is the abstract:  There is increasing evidence that housing and housing markets impact a variety of behaviors and outcomes. Using a rich panel of Australian microlevel data, we estimated the effect of housing price changes on both fertility intentions and fertility outcomes. The analysis indicates that the likelihood of having a child among homeowners is positively related to an increase in housing wealth. The positive housing wealth effect has t...

I recently starting posting to my Flickr account , which I've had for the longest time but never really used. Above is something I posted.

I have a new paper with  Ang Li  ( reseachgate here ) just published in  Preventive Medicine  on the impact of  No Jab, No Pay   and  No Jab, No Play  on vaccine coverage rates. We found that these policies, which removed non-medical exemptions from government benefits and childcare enrolments, were occasioned by an increase in vaccination coverage across states between 2-4% for one-year olds, 1-1.5% for two-year olds, and 1-3.5% for five-year-olds. We also found that the effect of the policy differed significantly depending on characteristics of the area. Areas that were characterised by either: lower socio-economic status, lower median income, more Family Tax Benefit recipients, or higher pre-intervention coverage had greater responsiveness to the policy changes. Variation in response to the policy changes across areas suggest the effect was largely led by lower-socioeconomic status parents who were nudged towards full vaccination, ...

I have a new paper with  Ang Li  ( reseachgate here ) just published in  Annals of Epidemiology   looking at the effects of graduating during economic downturns on mental health . We found that graduating during a time of increased unemployment is not good for either short-term mental health or long-term mental health. The scarring effect is particularly pronounced for men, people who don't receive government payments, and people with only vocational or secondary qualification. People with higher education seem to do better and graduating during downturns had less of a lasting effect. Title : Effects of graduating during economic downturns on mental health  Abstract Purpose This study examined the effects of economic downturns at the time of graduation on short-term and long-term mental health of graduates. Methods Using a large longitudinal dataset whose respondents graduated from their highest level of education between 2001 and 2018 in Australia, the study in...

. @ANGLIhere and my paper "Vaccine sentiments and under-vaccination" is now out about in the world and online for everyone to see: https://t.co/bEn4HBE75w — Mathew Toll (@MGHToll) November 18, 2020 New paper out co-authored with  Ang Li  on the issue of vaccine hesitancy and under-vaccination that looks at the factors associated with vaccine attitudes (very strongly agree with vaccines to very strongly disagree with vaccines) and vaccine behaviours around the MMR vaccine (full dosage, partial dosage, no dosage).  And the consistency between factors associated with attitudes and behaviours, showing when practical barriers impede the translation of positive vaccine attitudes into full uptake.  Title: “ Vaccinesentiments and under-vaccination: Attitudes and behaviour around Measles,Mumps, and Rubella vaccine (MMR) in an Australian cohort ” Abstract:  Objective The study aimed to examine the consistency in factors associated with attit...

A short  Goodreads Review of Sun and Steel  by Yukio Mishima that I wrote a little while ago. I have to say – I do not quite get the adoration that people have for this book on YouTube. People talk about it as a kind of masculine self-help book about mastering the “discipline of the steel”, weightlifting and weapons, and embracing your physical being and physical experience. The book does detail Mishima's journey to leave his room and transform himself through lifting steel, running, and fencing. Flirtations with the military, etc. Yet it isnt simply that, as the subtitle suggests "Art, Action and Ritual Death", it presents a worldview on relationship between word (spirit) and action (body) and their reconciliation in death. One of the notions that I was sympathetic to is that there is a problem of overindulging in introspection and the idea that the ‘surface’ of things might contain its own kind of depths (of experience) and that the ‘depth’ within oneself are a series ...

This post is a review I wrote of  Salvatore Babones 's book 'The New Authoritarianism'  for Good reads  a couple of years ago. I intended to write an extended post on the book for the blog but never did. So here is the original review: Babones offers an account of a “new authoritarianism”: an illiberal transformation of liberalism from the classical philosophy of individual freedom to a rights-based discourse that ‘empowers’ people on their behalf and removes rights from the realm of democratic contestation. This transformation of liberalism is underpinned by the authority (or rather tyranny in Babones's framing) of a new liberal expert class of professionals and managers that control liberal institutions, nationally and globally, and filter the range of policy options presented to the voting population. This is an intriguing thesis – elements of the argument have an logic that we have heard before. Garrett Hardin suggested that human right framework...

Society is underpinned by standards and expectations as to what social worlds should resemble and operate. But when the very foundations of that world are rocky and open to misuse and abuse, the society is left in a destabilized position. What remains is the question of how these worlds are tolerated in this destabilized form? Can they continue indefinitely in such a way? This place of discomfort is the abject, that which is contrary to everyday harmony. Often the locus of the abject can be expressed in violence. In the case of the Holocaust the abject impacted the individual Jewish people and the wider community of Germany and the world. The meaning that was derived to spark the violence and the meaning that remains are in stark contrast. Prior to the Holocaust the Jewish people were not abject to their community, but with a little guidance and propaganda they were led to a mass hysteria that the world hopes to never witness again. During Europe’s enlightened period the annihi...